Polysilicon price center moves downward, glass quotes still expected to continue to decline [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News on May 19:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Last Friday, the main silicon metal futures contract suffered a significant decline, closing at 8,100 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous day, hitting a new low again. The market sentiment in the spot market failed to improve, and silicon metal prices continued to weaken.

Production

Based on supply-demand balance calculations, the surplus in Q1 was estimated to be around 45,000 mt. From April to May, both supply and demand were weak, and the supply-demand balance shifted towards a slight destocking, but the magnitude was relatively small, having little impact on the supply-demand structure.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 599,000 mt on May 15, up 3,000 mt WoW. Among this, the inventory in general social warehouses was 132,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, while the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 467,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 4,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 37-40.5 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 37 yuan/kg. The price center of the polysilicon market moved downward. Recently, order signing for polysilicon in the early stage has gradually commenced, with order news emerging for both granular and rod-shaped polysilicon. Overall, market bargaining power is weak.

Production

In May, some bases scheduled for production resumptions delayed their restarts. Polysilicon production this month fell short of expectations, and currently, enterprises' enthusiasm for resuming production is generally limited. Enterprises have discussed production cuts multiple times, but those with sufficient orders have relatively little willingness to cut production.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has seen a certain decline, mainly due to the shipment of early orders and the signing of some orders.

Module

Prices

In the current module market, the mainstream transaction price for N-type 182mm modules in centralized projects is 0.697-0.705 yuan/W, with the average price unchanged. The mainstream transaction price for N-type 210mm modules is 0.712-0.72 yuan/W, with the average price unchanged. The price for TOPCon distributed 182mm modules is 0.685-0.692 yuan/W.

Production

Recently, there is an expectation for module prices to stabilize, and gross profit losses are the least across the entire industry chain. Therefore, companies have no further production cut plans, and the production schedule for May remains as expected at the beginning of the month.

Inventory

Some distributed orders were forced to be canceled as they could not be connected to grid before May 31. Overall, module inventory is fluctuating at highs.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, the price of domestic inner-layer sand is 60,000-70,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 33,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 18,000-24,000 yuan/mt. In the past week, the high-purity quartz sand market has been mainly in the doldrums, with the mainstream transaction center moving slightly downward. There is still support for low prices in the market, so the overall performance is a narrowing of the price range. It is expected that under the influence of continued weak demand for wafers, sand prices will still have a downward trend.

Production

Recently, domestic quartz sand enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in their operating rates, with an overall slight increase in production.

Inventory

Recently, the inventory of sand enterprises has slightly increased. The demand for crucibles has fallen short of expectations and continues to decline.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 21.5-22.5 yuan/m², with the price remaining stable for now.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 22.5-23.5 yuan/m², with the price remaining stable for now.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 13-13.7 yuan/m², with the center of market quotes moving downward.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 14-14.7 yuan/m², with the center of market quotes moving downward.

Production

In May, domestic glass production has continued to increase, with the industry's operating rate approaching 60%.

Inventory

The inventory of sand enterprises is still slightly increasing. This week, some module enterprises are planning to start purchasing, and glass inventory is expected to stop rising.